Jesse Pickard

My Predictions For Mobile Social Networks

In the early summer of 2008, I was really bullish on mobile social networks. I envisioned people walking into a bar and looking at their iphone to see if anybody they knew was there, checking the single to taken ratio of the bar, etc. Like others, I was excited for the value that location and mobility brought to social networking and I predicted a rapid adoption.

Then I bought the iPhone 3G and actually used Loopt (and BrightKite too)

I immedietly realized how critical it is for a mobile social network app to be able to operate in the background. The iPhone only allows for one app to run at a time. It doesn’t even allow for background notifications. Sounds like a small techy issue, but it ends up crushing Loopt’s ability to gather a critical mass of people and deliver on the cool things that were shown off in Apple’s TV commercials.

Loopt and Brightkite are very smart to be releasing features that surface people you don’t know who are near you. But I’m not sure it will be enough. Looking at a bunch of randoms around you is fun for a minute, but not all that useful in the long run. Also, the experience is lacking for those who live outside of the big cities.

Loopt and BrightKite have the following stacked against them:

• Not allowed to operate in the background
• Building a social network from scratch is a pain (when Facebook/Myspace go location-aware, they’re toast)
• Phones takes a little too long to get a fix on your location

Here’s what I think will happen (in order):

1. Brightkite and Loopt introduce very strong Facebook Connect implementations (BK already has a decent one)

2. Brightkite and Loopt get more popular and useful

3. Iphone finally allows for background notifications from apps (think of the little red numbers that appear whenever you get a new text or email)

4. Brightkite and Loopt get much more popular and useful

5. Facebook becomes location aware, propelling location-based social networking into the mainstream, rendering Loopt and Brightkite obsolete.

I still think mobile social networking is next big thing, but I think existing social networks are positioned to dominate it (if they want to).

Thoughts? Am I way off?